September 4, 2016
TBR. Retrieved 19 March 2014.
^ “How quickly is temporary market inefficiency removed?” Ben R. For example, arbitrage calculators can handle calculations for both book arbitrage (“back/back” or “lay/lay”) and “back/lay” arbitrage opportunities on an intra-exchange or inter-exchange basis, and is free.
Bookmakers generally disapprove of betting arbitrage, and restrict or close the accounts of those who they suspect of engaging in arbitrage betting. Numerous online arbitrage calculator tools exist to help bettors get the math right. There are a number of potential arbitrage deals. If one wishes to place stake s1displaystyle s_1 at outcome 1, then one should place s2=s1*o1/o2displaystyle s_2=s_1*o_1/o_2 at outcome 2, to even out the odds, and receive the same return no matter the outcome of the event.
For arbitrages involving three outcomes (e.g. Therefore, in order to reduce “losses” on the free bet, it is necessary to place a bet with high odds, so that the percentage difference of the decrease in odds is minimised.
Disappearance of arbitrage: Arbitrages in online sports markets have a median lifetime of around 15 minutes, after which the difference in odds underpinning them vanishes through betting activity. It is in principle the same as the arbitrage using different bookmakers. However, frequent punters may be subject to a discount of up to 60%, i.e. On the other hand, these changes also made it easier for bookmakers to keep their odds in line with the market, because arbitrage bettors are basically acting as market makers.
Arbitrage is an extremely fast-paced process and its successful performance requires lots of time, experience, dedication and discipline, and especially liquidity.
By signing up to various bookmakers, it is possible to turn these “free” bets into cash fairly quickly, and either making a small arbitrage, or in the majority of cases, making a small loss on each bet, or trade. to bet against) as well as to back an outcome. Matching terms for all bookmakers is time consuming, requires lots of expertise and experience, while still being fairly error-prone.
Detection: There are very few bookmakers who openly tolerate arbing. Below is an explanation of some of them including formulas and risks associated with them. This usually leads to unprofitable arbing as the most successful bookmakers are so adept at identifying arbitrage bettors.
Stake reviewal: Some bookmakers are known to accept only very small stakes by default, while requiring larger stakes to be manually reviewed before being accepted, which basically makes it difficult for an arbitrage better to determine if a leg was completely accepted or not, until it may be too late.
Bet cancellation: If a bettor places bets so as to make an arbitrage and one bookmaker cancels a bet, the bettor could find himself in a bad position because he is actually betting with all the risks implied. 9.
^ Keynes, Milton. Many bookmakers may now be using shared security servers in order to pinpoint people suspected of arbitrage betting; they can simply limit stakes to make arbing unprofitable and even close accounts without honoring a bet that was placed. However, it is relatively time consuming to find close matched bets or arbitrages, which is where a middleman service is useful. Marshall The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance 49 (2009) 917-930
Retrieved from “https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Arbitrage_betting&oldid=734162141″
Shop arbitrage (also known as sharbing or shop-arbing) is the process of using a betting shop’s coupons and a betting exchange to create an arbitrage position. Accordingly, profits accumulated through 20-40 successful arbitrages can be lost on a single failed bet.
Won arbitrages realized via betting exchanges are typically subject to a commission fee of about 4-5%. In case outcome 2 comes out, one could collect r2=$36.67*3.9=$143displaystyle r_2=$36.67*3.9=$143 from bookmaker 1. a passport/ID copy). Although arbitrage betting has existed since the beginnings of bookmaking, the rise of the Internet, odds-comparison websites and betting exchanges have made the practice easier to perform. This is made possible because online prices change quickly to close these positions and betting shops are slower to change the prices on their printed coupons.
Back-lay sports arbitrage is often called “scalping” or “trading”. Arbitrage using back and lay side is possible if a lay bet on one exchange provides shorter odds than a back bet on another exchange or bookmaker. They typically demand that this amount is wagered a number of times before the bonus can be withdrawn. a tennis match – either Federer wins or Henman wins), the two bookmakers have different ideas of who has the best chances of winning. As many bookmakers require a certain turnover of the bonus amount, matching money from different bookmakers against each other enables the player to in effect quickly “play free” the money of the losing bookmaker and in effect transfer it to the winning bookmaker. Scalping is not actually arbitrage, but short term trading. Expected Values and variance in bookmaker payouts: A Theoretical Approach towards setting limits on odds. Traders are often attracted to high odds comparison sites that yield high percentage profits per stake (5-30%); this is often used by hackers to lure a high number of arbitrage bettors that then place large sums of money on these arb’s, only to lose all of the profit and even entire savings in bank accounts to hackers or untrustworthy websites, which may further use the gathered data to sell personal data to criminals.
Making errors as an arber: In the excitement of the action and due to the high number of bets placed, it is not uncommon to make a mistake (like traders on financial markets). A key advantage to scalping on one exchange is that most exchanges charge commission only on the net winnings in a particular event, thus ensuring that even the smallest favorable difference in the odds will guarantee some profit.
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Betting arbitrage, miraclebets, surebets, sports arbitraging is a particular case of arbitrage arising on betting markets due to either bookmakers’ different opinions on event outcomes or plain errors. While making deposits is usually made easy and quick, making withdrawals often requires proof of identity in the form of passport/driver license, copies of which need to be shared with the bookmakers via fax/email or even postal mail, which causes additional identity theft risks. Websites and bet placement interfaces differ between bookmakers, so that arbitrage bettors need to be familiar with different web interfaces. The bettor can repeat the bet that has been cancelled so as minimize the risk, but if he cannot get the same odds he had before he may be forced to take a loss. Arbitrage betting is almost always insufficiently profitable due to detection, unreliable betting websites, limiting of stakes, hackers, and scammers that use high percentage arbitrages to trick bettors into providing security credentials.
As well as spending time physically matching odds from various bet sites to exchanges, the other draw back with bonus bagging and arbitrage trading in this sense is that often the free bets are “non-stake returned”. Usually these gaps will be in the order 8 – 12%. The idea is to find odds at different bookmakers, where the sum of the inverse of all the outcomes are below 1, meaning that the bookmakers disagree on the chances of the outcomes. By avoiding most of the turnover requirements in this way the player can usually expect a 70-80% return on investment.
The bookmaker’s return rate is 1-(1.25*3.9)/(1.25+3.9)=5.34%displaystyle 1-(1.25*3.9)/(1.25+3.9)=5.34%, which is the amount the bookmaker earns on offering bets at some event. For an example of an event with only two possible outcomes (e.g. In theory a trader could turn a small investment into large profits by re-investing his earlier profits into future bets so as to generate exponential growth. Loss of deposited money into a bookmaker could occur. For example, the appropriate stakes may be incorrectly calculated, or be placed on the wrong “legs” of the arb, locking in a loss, or there may be inadequate funds in one of the accounts to complete the arb. High street bookmakers however, offer their odds days in advance and rarely change them once they have been set. Mathematically arbitrage occurs when there are a set of odds, which represent all mutually exclusive outcomes that cover all state space possibilities (i.e. Without rapid alerting and action, it is possible to fail to make all the “legs” of the arbitrage before it vanishes, thus transforming it from a risk-free arbitrage into a conventional bet with the usual risks involved. all outcomes) of an event, whose implied probabilities add up to less than 1. In the bettors’ slang an arbitrage is often referred to as an arb; people who use arbitrage are called arbers.
Shop arbitrage (sharbing)
Placing a bet of $100 on outcome 1 with bookmaker 2 and a bet of $100*1.43/3.9=36.67displaystyle $100*1.43/3.9=36.67 on outcome 2 at bookmaker 1 would ensure the bettor a profit.
While often claimed to be “risk-free”, this is only true if an arbitrage is successfully completed; in reality, there are several threats to this:. One would have invested $136.67, but have collected $143, a profit of $6.33 (4.6%) no matter the outcome of the event.
1.1 Using bookmakers
1.2 Back-lay sports
1.3 Bonus sports
1.4 Shop arbitrage (sharbing)
This type of arbitrage takes advantage of different odds offered by different bookmakers. 1.25-1+3.9-1=1.056displaystyle 1.25^-1+3.9^-1=1.056 and 1.43-1+2.85-1=1.051displaystyle 1.43^-1+2.85^-1=1.051
Arbitrage betting involves relatively large sums of money for 98% of arbitrage opportunities return less than 1.2%. The practice is usually detected quickly by bookmakers, who typically hold an unfavorable view of it, and this can result in half of an arbitrage bet being canceled. Journal of Prediction Markets. Thus, the risk of seeing bets revoked is also often much higher for arbitrages found via such tools than for arbitrages found manually, that are not shared with other arbitrage bettors.
Arbing often involves making use of bookmaker bonuses which usually require substantial transactions before being eligible for withdrawal, thus reducing total liquidity.
Foreign currency movements can wipe out small percentage gains and can make quick calculation of stakes difficult.
Transferring funds between bookmakers and ewallets may create additional costs at some point; most bookmakers and/or ewallets limit deposits to certain amounts per month.
Withdrawals are often limited to a certain amount per month or to a certain number of free withdrawals per month
Withdrawals are often charged for, not just on the side of the bookmaker, but sometimes also on the ewallet side (transfer to the bettor’s bank account).
In some countries, additional costs are imposed by government taxes, so that the final profit is further reduced by a fixed percentage of say 5% (Germany/Europe).
Professional arbitrage betting may eat up considerable time and energy and requires lots of experience and liquidity, as well as sufficient funds to recover from inevitable losses that will happen sooner or later due to the aforementioned reasons.
Typically, arbitrages have a profit margin of only 2-5% – many other arbitrages are regarded as “high risk” (“palps”). Bonus sport arbitraging is a form of sports arbitraging where the bettor hedges or backs their bets as usual, but since they received the bonus, a small loss can be allowed on each wager (2-5%), which comes off their profit. This effectively reduces the odds, in decimal format, by 1. They offer the following Fixed-odds gambling on the outcomes of the event:
Other potential problems include:
For an individual bookmaker, the sum of the inverse of all outcomes of an event will always be greater than 1. In some sports different bookmakers deal with outcomes in different ways (they differ in their handling of – for example – player withdrawal due to injury in tennis, overtime in ice hockey), meaning that both “legs” can lose. These arbitrages can have a lifetime of several hours.
Hackers: Due to the large number of accounts that have to be created and managed (containing personal details such as email, name, address, ewallet, credit card information and often even a copy of the bettor’s ID/passport or driver’s license), arbitrage traders are highly susceptible to cyber fraud, such as bank account theft. In this way the bookmakers wagering demand can be met and the initial deposit and sign up bonus can be withdrawn with little loss.
Betting exchanges such as Smarkets have opened up a new range of arbitrage possibilities since on the exchanges it is possible to lay (i.e. The table below introduces a number of variables that will be used to formalise the arbitrage models.
3 See also
The amount required to bet on each possibility in order to ensure profit can be calculated by
For instance if one places a bet on outcome 1 at bookmaker 2 and outcome 2 at bookmaker 1:
In Britain, a practice has developed in which highly experienced “key men” employ others to place bets on their behalf, so as to avoid detection and increase accessibility to retail bookmakers and allow the financiers or key arbitragers to stay at a computer to keep track of market movement.
Reducing the risk of human error is vital being that the mathematical formula is sound and only external factors add “risk”. Arbitrage using only the back or lay side might occur on betting exchanges. Since most bookmakers offer these bonuses this can potentially be exploited to harvest the sign up bonuses.
Arbers’ dedicated email addresses are subject to advertising campaigns from third parties which suggests that client data may be resold behind the scenes.
Bookmakers who encourage responsible gambling will close accounts where they see only large losses, unaware that the arbitrage trader has made wins at other books.
Capital diffusion is serious; many bookmakers make it very easy to deposit funds and difficult to withdraw them (requiring lots of additional information, and documents as proof of identity, i.e. a game which can be won, lost or drawn) having the odds o1displaystyle o_1 for Outcome 1, o2displaystyle o_2 for outcome 2 and o3displaystyle o_3 for outcome 3 with their respective bids being b1displaystyle b_1, b2displaystyle b_2 and b3displaystyle b_3 and sum of the bids being B.
Or in other words, if there are two outcomes, a 1/1 and a 2/1, by covering the 1/1 with $500 and the 2/1 with $333, one is guaranteed to win $1000 at a cost of $833, giving a 20% profit. a minimum commission rate of 3%).
Smaller betting exchanges may not be able to deal with consistently winning punters.
Mathematics of bookmaking
^ Cortis, Dominic (2015). Making a return involves many bets spread over typically many bookmakers and keeping track requires good record-keeping and discipline.
Responding to an available arb may require transfer of funds from one bookmaker to another, through one or more ewallet accounts with each withdrawal requiring special approval.
While there are commercial software products and web services available to help with some of these tasks, they are complicated and may involve significant initial investments and monthly subscription fees.
Arbitrage bettors using software tools or web services to find arbitrages will often make an existing arbitrage even more prominent and obvious to the bookmaker because of the number of arbitrage bettors placing bets on the same outcome, so that the lifetime of an arbitrage found via such tools is often even much shorter than the average 15 minutes. However, the commission charged by the bookmakers and exchanges must be included into calculations.
In case outcome 1 comes out, one could collect r1=$100*1.43=$143displaystyle r_1=$100*1.43=$143 from bookmaker 2. Those errors might temporarily have an important impact. Scalping relies on liquidity in the markets and that the odds will fluctuate around a mean point. For example, one could actually make more money by placing the “wrong” bet where the outcome happens to be beneficial, though not justified by the arbitrage calculation. In the context of sports arbitrage betting a scalping trader or scalper looks to make lots of small profits, which in time can add up. 1. Many jurisdictions allow bookmakers to cancel bets in the event of such a “palpable” ["obvious"] error in the quoted odds This is often loosely defined as an obvious mistake, but whether a “palp” in fact has been made is often the sole discretion of the bookmaker.
The advantage over usual betting arbitrage is that it is a lot easier to find bets with an acceptable loss, instead of an actual profit. When conditions allow, by placing one bet per each outcome with different betting companies, the bettor can make a profit regardless of the outcome. In the long term, the benefit will depend on the odds. More often profits exists around the 4% mark or less.
Stake in outcome 1
Stake in outcome 2
Odds for outcome 1
Odds for outcome 2
Return if outcome 1 occurs
Return if outcome 2 occurs
Many bookmakers offer first time users a signup bonus in the range $10-200 for depositing an initial amount. This discrepancy can be used to obtain a profit.
So for 2 odds o1displaystyle o_1 and o2displaystyle o_2, where o1-1+o2-1<1displaystyle o_1^-1+o_2^-1<1. “Reward without Risk? An Introduction to Arbitrage Betting and the Asian Handicap”. In some cases the situation arises when there are very high potential payouts by the bookmaker, perhaps due to an unintentional error made while quoting odds. Bookmaker 1 will in this example expect to earn 5.34% on bets on the tennis game. However, repetition of this stroke of luck is unlikely, assuming the bookmaker has calculated the odds so they make a profit
How To Pick a Winner at the Dog Track With a Simple Trick
September 4, 2016
That would be betting against yourself. If I look at all these factors and can’t find any significant differences, there are two options that I see. Check for any advantage one has over the other and if there isn’t one, play them in a quiniela or don’t play them.
Usually, when I handicap greyhound races I don’t take minor factors into account. I compare them with a little list I’ve come up with. That can actually make a difference sometimes.
I never play two dogs to win if they’re evenly matched. If there doesn’t seem to be any difference between them based on those things, I look for any little thing that one has going for it that the other doesn’t.
I’ll look to see if either of them has won a race by several lengths recently, gained position on the leaders in a fast race or is from a kennel that is burning up the track at the moment. You don’t want to bet them both. I even check to see if one of them has had more days between races than the other. If one of them is 3 yrs old and the other is older, I’ll go with the younger dog.. Many times, there are two dogs that look just as good. There are some other rare situations when I play two dogs to win, but this isn’t one of them and I don’t recommend it. Then, if they’re still evenly matched, I look for the one thing that indicates that one of them is more likely to come in this time.
If you handicap by picking the best dog out of 8 in a greyhound race, there’s a common problem. Or I can play them in a quiniela, which is what I usually do.
There are a few options, but this is the one that has worked the best for me over the years. But when it gets down to two dogs who are evenly matched, I look at things like age, kennel standing, time of their last race etc. So what do you do?
First, I look at their class, running style, post position in this race as compared to their last race, post position that they like and whether they’re in form right now. I can lay off the race and find another race I like better
Company Profile for Global Betting & Gaming Consultants
September 4, 2016
As a result they have a much more in
depth understanding of the key issues and the direction that market
. This is monitored on a daily
basis with a newsfeed service being provided at www.gbgc.com.
GBGC’s combination of operational and
financial experience combined with our gambling industry focus, our
extensive network of contacts and that fact that we are regarded as an
independent commentator on the industry means that we are able to
scratch the surface and get to the bottom of issues which can sometimes
be clouded by data alone.
Type of Organization:
In addition GBGC could offer the added value of the knowledge of over
200 additional betting, gaming and lottery markets around the world and
would be able to instantly highlight any relevant comparators, etc. GBGC’s tracks market data, regulation and
industry news as it happens. The latest
review published October 2008 extends to over 1000 pages.
–(BUSINESS WIRE)–Global Betting and Gaming Consultants (GBGC) was established by its
Chief Executive and founder Warwick Bartlett during 1998. As a result in this
instance we would be able to offer knowledge of the European, Australian
North & South American and Asian gambling markets.
The statistics and forecasts that are contained within the Global
Gambling Report have become widely recognised, within the industry, the
financial community and the Media, as the industry standard for sizing
both the online and offline gambling markets. In addition to monitoring all of the
specialist industry press, both domestic and international, the company
also benefits from a daily electronic press cutting service that covers
more than 2,000 publications worldwide. GBGC
also keeps abreast of all the latest corporate news in the sector as the
company publishes the quarterly GBGC50 and iGBGC indices.
Head Of Research: Lorien Pilling
Our client base ranges from leading financial institutions such as UBS
and Dresdner Kleinwort to William Hill plc
Bartlett was advisor to The Government of Malta for two years and our
advice helped Malta establish itself as the leading off shore gambling
jurisdiction. Consequently GBGC are the
most widely quoted source of industry data in share prospectuses and
analysts’ notes as well as on TV/Radio and in publications as diverse as
the Financial Times, Forbes, Time Magazine, BBC Radio 4, BBC Breakfast,
ITN news, the Economist and Fortune magazine.
2nd Floor , 8-10 Malew Street
Castletown, OTHER IM9 1AB
Global Betting and Gaming Consultants
In addition to its consultancy GBGC has produced four reviews of the
global gambling market that have been widely acknowledged to be the best
available both in terms of both their detail and accuracy. The company has work
with or supplied information to over 400 clients the majority of whom
are ‘blue chip’.
GBGC also provided the data on Internet gambling to lawyers representing
the government of Antigua in its case against the United States at the
GBGC’s personnel spend all of their time
looking at the gambling market. Bartlett has
an extensive track record in the gambling industry spanning some 40
COO: Mark Pilkington
Projects have included market research/assessments, business/facility
planning, product evaluations, design/operational reviews, the
development/review of corporate strategies, license applications,
regulation development for and on behalf of governments, IPOs, M and A
and due diligence. Typically clients include, operators,
monopolies/lotteries, suppliers, investment banks, the major
consultancies, and governments.
GBGC has established itself as the most credible specialist
international gambling consultancy in the world. We have advised the Government of Botswana on the
implementation of their new Gambling Act.
CEO: Warwick Bartlett
With an international focus GBGC are able to offer clients an additional
perspective gained from researching markets, working on projects and
attending/speaking at conferences around the world
The Best Basketball State In the Country
September 1, 2016
Likely All-Americans Desean Butler (West Virginia) and Ashton Gibbs (Pittsburgh) hail from the Garden state. We come to play here because we always know we’re going to get a good fight.”
Even with all the great players coming from New Jersey, the two major state schools, Rutgers and Seton Hall continue to struggle. At one point it was Chicago, and New York and Indiana have both held the title. Bob Hurley the famed coach of St. If they could just keep most of the top players in state, they would be significantly improved.
The current USA today top 25 ranking has four New Jersey teams in it, three in the top 10. Patricks (#8) and St. In reality, the best basketball in the country is being played in New Jersey. This would be impressive for California or Texas but for a state one-fourth the size of those two, it’s ridiculous. ” These are hard-nosed kids. Anthony’s (#19) are in dire shape financially and in danger of closing every year. That New Jersey, a state known best for its diners and a fictitious mobster, now holds the crown is almost inconceivable.
If you’ve watched college basketball, this year you’ve likely seen a product of the ultra-competitive state. ” Hurley, who coaches in rough and tumble Jersey City, at a school with less then 200 students and no money to speak of, is not one to make excuses. ” This is such a dense population and the coaching is so good, that everyone is in the same position as us.” Oak Hill coach Steve Smith likes playing in New Jersey for this very reason. Still, the recent dominance of Garden State ballers in the college ranks emphasizes this point dramatically. Tyshawn Taylor (Kansas), Corey Fisher and Corey Stokes (Villanova) Lance Thomas (Duke), Mike Rosario (Rutgers) and Dexter Strickland (UNC) are some of the other marquee Jersey players at the collegiate level. The depth of basketball talent in Jersey was never more evident than this past Saturday. One of the states middle of the pack teams, St.
The reasoning behind this dominance is simple: talent and supreme toughness. Thanks to Hoosiers and Hoop Dreams, it’s tough to fault this misconception. If you created a tournament where players suited up for their home state, there wouldn’t be a team in the country who could match up with this talent and depth.
The stereotypical image of great high school basketball is either the dusty plains or the big, gritty inner city. Still, they along with St. Peters Prep, took down Oak Hill Academy, a Virginia prep school widely regarded as the best basketball school in the country. ” These players and teams are tough.
The best high school basketball spot in the country changes frequently. Benedicts (#5) are annually one of the best teams in the country. Anthony’s agrees with this sentiment. Three of them, Paterson Catholic (#6), St. When they match up with all these similar teams in the area, it makes them that much better. All four ranked squads are from small parochial schools within 15 miles of each other. Many coaches and followers of the sport would argue this has been true for the past ten years
Research and Markets: Forecasting in Financial and Sports Gambling Markets: Adaptive Drift Modeling Identifies Periods of Inefficiency and Develops Profitable Forecasting Models
September 1, 2016
Mallios, PhD, is a consultant at Mallios and Associates,
where he provides professional advisement to various financial, medical,
and educational institutions. Studies in Japanese Candlestick Charts.
6. Modeling Cointegrated Time Series Associated with NBA and NFL
11. Simultaneous Financial Time Series.
10. Also, anyone
with a general interest in learning about how to profit from the
financial and sports gambling markets will find this book to be a
1. Adaptive Modeling Concepts in Dynamic Markets.
served as professor of decision sciences at California State University,
Fresno, for more than twenty-five years and has provided consulting
services for government organizations, including the Food and Drug
Administration and Centers for Disease Control.
Higher order ARMA processes in financial markets
The effects of gambling shocks in sports gambling markets
Cointegrated time series with model drift
Forecasting in Financial and Sports Gambling Markets is an excellent
book for courses on financial economics and time series analysis at the
upper-undergraduate and graduate levels. Financial/Mathematical Illiteracy and Adolescent Problem Gambling:
Epidemics More Damaging Than the 1918 Influenza Pandemic.
2. Single Equation Adaptive Drift Modeling.
8. The Influenza Futures Markets.
List of Figures.
A guide to modeling analyses for financial and sports gambling markets,
with a focus on major current events
For more information visit http://www.researchandmarkets.com/research/508458/forecasting_in_fin
DUBLIN–(BUSINESS WIRE)–Research and Markets (http://www.researchandmarkets.com/research/508458/forecasting_in_fin)
has announced the addition of John Wiley and Sons Ltd’s new book “Forecasting
in Financial and Sports Gambling Markets: Adaptive Drift Modeling”
to their offering.
Throughout the book, interesting real-world applications are presented,
and numerous graphical procedures illustrate favorable trading and
betting opportunities, which are accompanied by mathematical
developments in adaptive model forecasting and risk assessment. Pseudo Candlestick Graphics for Major League Baseball.
7. Opacity and Present Day Variables.
4. Categorical Forecasting.
12. The book is also a valuable
reference for researchers and practitioners working in the areas of
retail markets, quant funds, hedge funds, and time series. Featuring detailed examples
that utilize actual data, the book addresses various topics that promote
financial and mathematical literacy, including:
Key Topics Covered:
. Addressing the highly competitive and risky environments of current-day
financial and sports gambling markets, Forecasting in Financial and
Sports Gambling Markets details the dynamic process of constructing
effective forecasting rules based on both graphical patterns and
adaptive drift modeling (ADM) of cointegrated time series. A Fulbright Senior Specialist, Dr. The book
uniquely identifies periods of inefficiency that these markets oscillate
through and develops profitable forecasting models that capitalize on
irrational behavior exhibited during these periods.
William S. A
related web site features updated reviews in sports and financial
forecasting and various links on the topic.
Providing valuable insights based on the author’s firsthand experience,
this book utilizes simple, yet unique, candlestick charts to identify
optimal time periods in financial markets and optimal games in sports
gambling markets for which forecasting models are likely to provide
profitable trading and wagering outcomes. Market Perspectives: Through a Glass Darkly.
3. Single Equation Modeling: Sports Gambling Markets.
How To Stop Gambling Addiction
August 31, 2016
Most problem gamblers will seek help through counseling and this lens aims to explain how to resolve gambling issues. At present, the new forms of gambling, such as internet betting, have a certain “trans-socio-economic appeal”, and the same might be said of slot-machines where they are situated within casino complexes. All which possess the element of risks. No doubt, this is one of the main causes in the rise of online gambling addiction. They would want to talk about their debt problems with their counsellor in relation to their other anxieties. The greater the availability, the greater the risk of people becoming addicted to the degree that it has problematic effects on them, and on those closest to them. Unless there is a strong religious belief that creates a barrier to establish a gambling or betting habit, people are often affected irrespective of race, social class or economic situation.
GET RID of Your Gambling Addiction Now and Move Towards A Better Lifestyle!
“How to stop gambling addiction?” It is important to understand the root causes and symptoms of the addiction in order to deal with it effectively. Online gambling addiction often leads to problems of debt and these people with debt problems are often referred to specialist debt counsellor. Online gambling addiction is similar to any other addictive behavior.
Some people may be drawn to certain forms of gambling or betting due to their socio-economic situation and that may simply be because of the influence of friends, family and availability. Many people seem to take gambling as a normalized way of being.
The type of gambling we are referring to are slot-machines, internet betting, casinos, betting shops and dog racing.
. Do not hesitate further
NBA bets on winning back fans | Reuters
August 31, 2016
While restoring integrity will be the NBA’s newest priority, the goal for the league’s 30 teams remains the same — winning a title.
The aging Spurs will have a familiar look with 12 players back from last year’s squad, former league and playoff MVP Tim Duncan leading an all-star international cast that includes Frenchman Tony Parker and Argentine Manu Ginobili.
There appears, however, to be a new powerhouse taking shape in the Eastern Conference with 10-times all-star Kevin Garnett’s arrival in Boston.
Since the Rockets made Yao the top selection in the 2002 NBA draft, the towering 7ft 6ins center has blossomed into one of the NBA’s most dominant players and one of world’s most recognizable athletes.
NEW YORK After a summer spent expanding its global brand with exhibition games from Shanghai to Rome, the NBA opens a new season on Tuesday looking to win back home fans following a gambling scandal which rocked the sport to its core.
By Steve Keating
| NEW YORK
Yao, however, could be in for some stiff competition off the court following the arrival of compatriot Yi Jianlian, who has hogged the international spotlight since the Milwaukee Bucks took the seven-footer with the sixth overall selection in this year’s draft.
Trade rumors have once again started to circulate, the Chicago Bulls reportedly making another bid for Bryant.
Referee Tim Donaghy’ admission he bet on games he officiated and passed on inside information to bookies has inflicted severe damage to the NBA’s credibility with the toll likely to mount as investigations continue.
The night’s other matchup will see two of the league’s marketing dynamos clash when Kobe Bryant and the Los Angeles Lakers host Yao Ming and the Houston Rockets.
In Dwyane Wade and Shaquille O’Neal the Miami Heat still pack the NBA’s best one-two punch and if the two all-stars can stay healthy another championship could be headed to South Florida.
The Miami Heat and Detroit Pistons also look ready to figure into the Eastern Conference battle.
Stung by the failure, James dedicated himself to an off-season of intense training in his bid to guide the Cavaliers to the championship and secure his place among the game’s greats.
Over the last decade, none have been better at collecting championships than the San Antonio Spurs, who enter the new campaign seeking their fifth title in 10 years.
The Phoenix Suns and their high-octane offence led by twice MVP Steve Nash, once again look the best in the West alongside the Spurs and Dallas Mavericks.
NBA commissioner David Stern dismissed the incident as nothing more than a rogue employee but the league must now concentrate on regaining the confidence of American and Canadian fans instead of wooing interest abroad.
After spending much of summer demanding a trade, Bryant is expected to be on the floor for the Lakers despite a wrist injury that kept him out of the team’s final exhibition contest.
Garnett, who came to Boston in a blockbuster trade with the Minnesota Timberwolves, joins Ray Allen and Paul Pierce in Beantown, instantly transforming the crumbling Celtics into championship contenders.
LeBron James is no stranger to the spotlight and is certain to be the focus of attention again after leading the Cavaliers to the NBA finals for the first time last year only to be swept in four games by the Spurs.
San Antonio will be part of the opening night action against the Portland Trail Blazers and the Utah Jazz take on the Golden State Warriors.
“I’m not pro sports gambling. I’m just a realist.”
August 31, 2016
Specifically, New Jersey Gov. And when it did, it was not subtle.
The opportunity for additional streams of capital from sports betting can’t be lost on U.S. It studied and researched and planned behind closed doors before it made its move. “The league and many of our teams are actively engaged in the so-called daily fantasy business,” Silver says. Gary Bettman, the longtime commissioner of the NHL, told CNN in November after Silver’s op-ed was published: “I think there needs to be some attention paid to what sports is going to represent to young people. In some areas of Australia, for example, sportsbooks pay fees to leagues based on the gross revenue made off the wagering of the games. “I am very sensitive to people thinking that I’m not understanding of the downsides,” he says. A 2007 letter signed by all general counsels of the major sports leagues and the NCAA, including NBA vice president Rick Buchanan, stated, “The harms caused by government endorsement of sports betting far exceed the alleged benefits.”
THEN CAME SILVER’S op-ed. And in New Zealand, sportsbook giant TAB paid more than $5 million last year in commissions to the leagues it takes wagers on. The best way for the league to monitor our integrity is for that betting action to move toward legal betting organizations, where it can be tracked. “In light of these domestic and global trends,” he wrote, “the laws on sports betting should be changed. MLB declined to comment for this story, and the NFL refused to even reiterate its anti-legalization stance. In England, bets can be placed on a smartphone, at a stadium kiosk or even using a TV remote control. One week later, the NBA was due back in court as part of its ongoing fight to prevent New Jersey from making sports betting legal. “But I view myself more as pro transparency. “I recognize that it can be very damaging to a person or a person’s family, just like other substances of potential abuse taken to extremes. The illegal market across sports? Try 132 times that — an estimated $138.9 billion, according to the American Gaming Association. In 516 words, he diagnosed the reality of sports betting in the U.S.: Federal and state laws are not stopping anyone from betting. But the timing of the op-ed allowed him to address another seeming hypocrisy: Just one day prior to its publication, the league announced a deal with a successful daily fantasy operator called FanDuel, which boasted some $621 million in entry fees last year alone. That’s when Silver says he began to realize the need for a response. “As someone who attends an enormous number of games, I’m often hearing fans talking about it,” Silver says. Congress should adopt a federal framework that allows states to authorize betting on professional sports, subject to strict regulatory requirements and technological safeguards.”
U.S. It saw how all that interest, as well as action from illegal offshore betting sites, fueled NBA fandom, and it realized it needed to have a seat at the table — the better to monitor and monetize those burgeoning passions. That’s the pragmatic approach.”. Just 88 days into his tenure as NBA commissioner, on April 29, 2014, Silver banned Clippers owner Donald Sterling in a four-minute proclamation on national TV, his willingness to stand alone in full view.
The Donaghy revelation became the ugliest gambling scandal to hit an American professional sport since at least Pete Rose’s banishment from baseball in 1989 and perhaps since the Black Sox threw the 1919 World Series. And publicly, it did. As we became more of a global company, I began to think about what our policy should be here.”
Fans weren’t the only ones talking about it. While the NBA is still fighting in the courts to keep New Jersey from setting up its own sports-betting operation, three other states (New York, Indiana and South Carolina) have introduced similar bills this year, and a Minnesota state representative, Phyllis Kahn, has told ESPN that she’ll be introducing a sports-betting proposal early in this legislative session.
In the meantime, Silver is willing to take the lead on an issue that some liken to the legalization of marijuana — socially acceptable but mostly illegal. But I think that league policy was formulated at a time when gambling was far less widespread — even legally.”
His time overseas coincided with the Donaghy scandal and the revelation, as Silver puts it, “of how important it is to have a way of monitoring irregular activity in our games.” He adds, “None of the systems we had in place had captured any betting by Donaghy.”
Studying models is one thing. Once again, the leagues sued and won. Actually establishing a legal framework is another. 13, 2014, editorial in The New York Times, penned by new commissioner Adam Silver: I believe that sports betting should be brought out of the underground and into the sunlight where it can be appropriately monitored and regulated. I needed a forum to make it clear.”
The NBA’s pivot point on legalized gambling appeared in a Nov. In March, two NBA attorneys attended a mock sports-betting trial put on by gaming attorney Jeff Ifrah at iGaming North America at Planet Hollywood in Las Vegas. 16 Gambling Issue. “One of my concerns is that I will be portrayed as pro sports betting,” he says.
Silver says he hasn’t set a timetable for the day when we can legally bet on a Cavaliers-Heat game. He’s relaxed, though not unguarded. In September 2014, citing a loophole in the Department of Justice’s language about violations to PASPA, Christie issued a directive to legalize.
Leave it to Mark Cuban to be frank about that aspect of the NBA’s support for legalization. Or on Silver, who gained extensive knowledge of foreign revenue models during his time overseas. Chris Christie, who in 2012 began pushing to legalize sports betting in his state by challenging the Professional and Amateur Sports Protection Act (PASPA) of 1992, the federal ban on state-sponsored sports betting.
The timing of the column, of course, was calculated. All of them have assigned people to study the issue intensively.
” — NBA commissioner Adam Silver
Privately, though, the league was watching — closely — as the Vegas market and legal daily fantasy sites were growing exponentially. “We have studied the New Zealand model and other models in other jurisdictions,” he says.
A united front among all the leagues would certainly help Silver’s cause for a federal solution. In that dark moment, the NBA could very well have hunkered down and waited for the dawn. commissioner to publicly support legalized sports gambling. She was represented by Ifrah, while David Deitch, a former Justice Department attorney, represented the government. And the NHL and MLB are both currently partnered with daily fantasy sports operator DraftKings.
So it is, then, that for now, at least, Silver seems comfortable standing alone as the only acting U.S. “We did everything possible to encourage it while publicly condemning gambling. Deitch prevailed.
In September, Silver told an audience at a Bloomberg sports business conference that expanded legalized sports betting in the U.S. “Even if they’re not betting, they’re highly aware of the betting line and over/unders.”
Cuban has suggested that one way of monetizing that interest is to charge sportsbooks and casinos licensing fees to use the league’s data. That’s yet another reason I think it needs to be closely monitored.”
This story appears in ESPN The Magazine’s Feb. You don’t have to be a cynic to think that the leagues and their owners want a piece of that very big betting pie.
With the proliferation of casinos and state lotteries, the instant gratification of the Internet and the boom in daily fantasy sports, betting was becoming part of mainstream America. Attorney Harris Fischman examined major U.S. “As we began to stage exhibition games in Europe and China and jurisdictions where sports betting was legal, it caused me to focus more on this than I had historically,” Silver says. The case is headed to the Third Circuit Court of Appeals this spring.
When asked about the support he’s getting from other leagues, Silver says, “I have talked to the commissioners in the other leagues about it, and I leave it to them to make any public statements they want to make on it. The other leagues have — at least publicly — not wavered from their anti-legalization stance after the op-ed. I’m glad Adam is putting the hypocrisy behind us and putting it all up front.”
Stern began thinking along the same lines. The move made sense to many in New Jersey, where ailing gaming and racing industries were causing financial strain. So were politicians. But Adam Silver has proved otherwise. was “inevitable” because cash-strapped states need the revenue.
PERHAPS THE BEST Silver can hope for from other commissioners is a new view of sports betting as a possible “frenemy.” It is tricky, after all, for the leagues to embrace something they’ve long denounced for its impact on the “integrity of the game.” It would also be naive to think that this is all about the sanctity of the results. The NBA deal also included an equity stake in the company. Included in the forum, which wasn’t open to the public, were talks with law enforcement officials, gaming regulators, addiction specialists and even a former student-athlete caught up in sports gambling. “Then we began getting approached by sports-betting companies outside of the United States, where it’s legal, to do business with them. I will say that certainly all of them … Regardless of public positioning, all the leagues are actively planning for a new gambling reality. But you can bet all interested parties — the other leagues, the states, the bookmakers, the bettors — are following the developments as closely as they would a point spread.
In November 2011, New Jersey voters had overwhelmingly approved a referendum to legalize Las Vegas-style sports betting at racetracks and casinos across the state. He spent time overseas growing the NBA’s brand, giving him a vantage point to see how legalized gambling worked in other countries. Does it become a vehicle for betting, which may in effect change the atmosphere in the arenas?”
Nine months later, on a cold January afternoon on the 19th floor of league headquarters in Midtown Manhattan, with Hot Chocolate’s “You Sexy Thing” playing, Silver is loose and joking, all the while being prepped for his cover shoot. team owners. The title of the exercise? “As Close as You Ever Want to Get to a Federally Prosecuted Sports Betting Trial.” In it, Assistant U.S. … “My greatest concern,” he says, “is that there will be, in essence, a hodgepodge of regulations controlling sports betting that will vary from state to state, jurisdiction to jurisdiction, and will make it increasingly difficult to monitor betting on our very own sport.”
Through it all, Silver has remained steadfast that legal sports gambling should be addressed first on the federal, not state, level. But the state didn’t give up. There also have been other, more private confabs involving high-ranking advisers to the leagues. The “defendant,” “Ginger McKenna,” was accused of facilitating illegal sports bets. “I felt the need to explain why I had made other statements acknowledging that I thought sports betting should be legalized,” Silver says.
The bald 52-year-old man in glasses and a conservative dark suit doesn’t look like an agent of change — especially with the 1970s soul music playing in the background on the set at a recent photo shoot for The Mag. District Judge Michael Shipp ruled in favor of the leagues. “And while I wouldn’t categorize that as sports betting, on the continuum of no betting at all and legalized betting, it’s certainly on the spectrum.”
I have talked to the other commissioners about it. In those meetings, sources with direct knowledge say, contingency plans were formed in preparation for the day sports betting is legal outside of Nevada.
THE NBA’S DARKEST hour can actually be marked by a single moment, concentrated down to the uttering of a sentence. “I can tell you that this is the most serious situation and worst situation that I have ever experienced either as a fan of the NBA, a lawyer for the NBA or a commissioner of the NBA.” That was the lament of then-commissioner David Stern during a July 24, 2007, news conference announcing that referee Tim Donaghy was under federal investigation for betting on games. But that’s not to say he and the NBA are the only ones re-examining their approach. It could have continued to treat sports betting as the enemy that for as long as anyone could remember had threatened the very fabric of the game. And someone who’s a realist in the business. In September 2012, the NFL convened a forum in collaboration with other pro leagues, the International Olympic Committee and the NCAA to discuss best practices, law enforcement resources and the gambling industry. gaming laws, including PASPA and the Wire Act, which prohibits any betting activity that includes wire transmissions. Billions of dollars are being illegally wagered on sports, almost all online. “We have always known betting, fantasy leagues and daily [fantasy] sports have driven interest and viewership,” wrote the Mavericks’ owner in a recent email exchange with The Magazine. have assigned people in their organizations to study the issue intensively.”
And so after taking over for Stern last February, Silver wasted little time implementing his approach. Subscribe today!
The evolution of Silver as gambling realist in many ways began in 2006, after he took over the league’s international operations as deputy commissioner. “We’re still in the monitoring stage,” he says. In 2013, $1.05 billion was wagered legally on basketball, combining the professional and college levels. On the one side are those who tell you that’s the way it’s always been done, and on the other are those who urge you to change and adapt.
But multiple sources with direct knowledge of meetings between the leagues believe the NHL is much more open to legalization than Bettman’s comments indicate. “Yet at the same time, we were opposing the New Jersey legislation in multiple court actions. (One study by Nevada gaming company Club Cal Neva projected a possible windfall of $50 million for Atlantic City casinos if betting was legalized.) But the leagues — the NBA, NFL, NHL and MLB — and the NCAA sued, claiming that the state was in violation of PASPA and that the perception of the integrity of the games would be damaged if New Jersey began taking legal bets.
SPORTS IS AN ongoing contest between two forces: tradition and innovation. In 2009, the then-commissioner told Sports Illustrated, when asked if legal sports betting would be in the NBA’s best interest, “It has been a matter of league policy to answer that question no
Casino-Gaming :: How Safe is Online Casino Gambling?
August 30, 2016
The safety of playing should be guaranteed from the first deposit of money to the final withdrawal of cash. However there are those websites that are set up to scam players from their money and that’s where online casinos guidelines for safe gambling come into play. Many players are hesitant to put money into an online casino because they are concerned that they will not get paid when they win or that the games are rigged and they will lose their money. Your credit card is fully safe with the online casino you can be sure that your personal details stay with the casino for you to authorize deposits into your casino balance and most online casinos even use higher level encryption than your bank.
Online casinos are created and operated in such a way that it has won over the trust of millions of players the world over. There are a lot of other options out there.
There are some groups dedicated to making sure that online casinos are safe. They want to know if the games are honest and if their money will be safe.
When you gamble in an online casino the only one in reach of your pockets is anyone you let into your own front door. While some online casinos offer even higher payout percentages on their online slot machine games others publish payout percentage audits on their websites usually approved by a third party accounting group approving that the online casino is using an honest programmed random number generator (RNG) which eventually makes the online casinos even reputable at some points over the land based traditional casinos. Having multiple revenue streams, giving them more incentive to stay honest and making it more likely that they will stay profitable.
Every player should choose sites which can provide them maximum protection against hacks and other breaks in security.
Safety is the pre-eminent concern that players have about online gambling. If a casino is verified by such a group there will be a link to them on the website of the safe casino Such groups include the Kahnawake Gaming Commission and the Interactive Gaming Council.
Online casinos usually offer odds and payout percentages that are almost the same as land-based casinos. However, if you’re not sure about how safe a casino is, try doing some online research to see what others say. Through this useful casino guide, one can play with much safety in a gambling site. Be careful of online casinos that have outrageously high bonus offers or that have only been around and in the long run, if you’re not comfortable with a certain casino, don’t use it. Today, a casino guide to identify safe online casino sites is much needed by all gamblers. .
The first on the list of online casinos guidelines for safe gambling is ensure that the online casino you wish to play at has a valid license and you can do that by simply checking the websites that post reviews and ratings of the online casino.
Moreover, online casinos that have a number of different gaming avenues tend to be safer
Free Fantasy Sports Streak Games and Contests with Cash and Prizes
August 30, 2016
We have found that during basketball season it was much easier to find a good pick than it has been during baseball season.
Covers.com is a sports betting information website that runs a free streak style contest with a top prize of $100,000. Each day you can make one pick from a list of games that Covers.com chooses. Basketball and football include picking ATS (against the spread), which makes Covers.com the closest thing to actually betting on sports on this list.
Only having the option of picking one game a day makes this contest one of my favorites. If you get your pick correct, your streak goes up.
The ultimate goal is to build a streak of 24 correct picks for the overall grand prize of $100,000. My longest streak was seven in a row and my girlfriend had 11 in a row during basketball season. See the table to the right for a breakdown of the prizes.
Many of the picks are not just picking which team will win. If you get it wrong, your streak resets to zero. You do not have to pick everyday, but you must pick once every six days to keep your streak alive.. It doesn’t take a lot of time and it is a contest that a smart sports fan has a reasonable shot at winning. Other prizes are available for smaller streaks